Who Will Wear The Jersey?
Update: If you are reading this today July 23 the timeline below makes no sense since I wrote it late last night but forgot to hit publish in my cheap beer and NyQuil induce fog. Anyway none of what I said played out which keeps my race prediction record at a perfect 100% wrong. Consistency my friends…
Nairo Quintana says Team Sky cracked today. On cyclingnews.com he said:
“Today I was almost 100 per cent. We have not got to Froome but we have weakened Sky and now come the more serious stages, which favour me, with longer climbs and tougher finishes where we can try to scratch back some time,”
That may be true of the team but from what I am seeing so far Froome is undroppable in the mountains. The big question is can continue to do it alone? Seems to me a few things have to happen for Quintana to get back 3 minutes to get the jersey. He has to go from further out. He is not gonna get that time back on an single climb unless Froome completely melts down which is unlikely. That means Froome/Sky have to be put under pressure early. A long T-Patch on the nuts Floyd style solo from Quintana is way too risky and it is unlikely Movistar is willing to even send Valverde out for the long one either. I think a perfect Nibali/Contador storm is the best bet. If one or both of them go for a big one Sky would have to chase and Movistar could play off of that. Stage 18 tomorrow would be a perfect launchpad for a long bomb. If I am Contador or Nibali I would be thinking that is a good day to catch the top dogs sleeping. Especially considering how nasty Stage 19 looks, a lot of guys will be wanting to save energy. Even if all that happens though Froome would have to completely come unglued to lose 3 minutes. Also unlikely.
As much shit as I have talked about Froome I gotta say he has handled himself with class. I can’t saw much against him. If he wins he has certainly earned it.